Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 34.948296 39.469752 44.792276 51.645384 60.432920 7.162585e+01 87.515353
2025-04-27 28.802865 34.338524 41.523729 51.964140 67.618757 9.206366e+01 138.359367
2025-05-04 25.039668 31.009776 39.331672 52.637118 75.525974 1.194837e+02 240.028667
2025-05-11 22.291980 28.373324 37.309919 52.716568 82.553313 1.529662e+02 471.418125
2025-05-18 20.107093 26.103375 35.265003 52.008600 87.806995 1.907892e+02 1170.101510
2025-05-25 18.607372 24.587018 34.052811 52.335708 95.557059 2.526015e+02 17166.094143
2025-06-01 17.286367 23.149978 32.689155 51.945691 101.537906 3.293011e+02 NaN
2025-06-08 16.174656 21.901344 31.431968 51.413117 107.025079 4.356091e+02 NaN
2025-06-15 15.225829 20.808826 30.281689 50.808040 112.159289 5.913227e+02 NaN
2025-06-22 14.465202 19.946767 29.423962 50.645187 118.988305 8.893453e+02 NaN
2025-06-29 13.699679 19.007913 28.306073 49.616736 122.154506 1.284045e+03 NaN
2025-07-06 13.465264 18.939123 28.811551 52.681526 145.761575 8.028026e+03 NaN
2025-07-13 12.841776 18.163545 27.878650 51.909802 151.622676 1.973472e+06 NaN
2025-07-20 12.384472 17.645152 27.402896 52.287869 165.004876 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.996716 17.219770 27.066765 52.993779 182.497703 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.593066 16.736505 26.557887 53.085774 197.108498 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.162916 16.177378 25.834523 52.374698 205.302293 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.844925 15.802591 25.467785 52.707954 224.676147 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.500918 15.359106 24.911054 52.314355 237.500416 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.172991 14.927391 24.343468 51.775965 248.976042 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.863664 14.514426 23.784432 51.164010 259.610090 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.603475 14.180459 23.375440 50.999349 277.607593 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.306972 13.764163 22.750540 49.959053 281.245915 NaN NaN